Wednesday, October 23, 2019

The Challenge of Hiring Casual Labour, Part-Time. Louis Shalako



Louis Shalako



I have two days off in a row. The boss and another employee are going in today to make dough-balls.

Tomorrow, a service technician will be coming in, for roughly one hour, to service our mixing machine. This means I will not be able to do the usual tally in my typical four-hour shot. It’s a part-time job. I have a bad back, to the extent that I actually get a small, provincial disability pension. The pension pays the rent, the job buys the groceries and some other small luxuries. 

Like a half-decent vehicle, for example.

We have a problem, in that while sales volume has slowed on its usual, seasonal basis, for the most part, one guy does eighty to ninety percent of all production.

I have thought about getting someone else in there. Here’s the problem. Even with three or four of us going in during the busy season, all working part-time, if you add up all those hours, it represents barely one, full-time job. It’s also a physical job, as a sack of flour weighs twenty kilos or forty-four pounds.

The location is also out in the country. What I would like to see would be a mature adult, one with their own transportation, and an ability to work on their own. They’d be getting $14.00-$15.00 per hour, cash, with basically no other benefits. It’s casual labour, all the way. 

And yet, they would still have to have their own key. They would have to have some kind of personal discipline…I need to be able to trust them with our business and our premises.

And at that point, someone has to train them. Someone has to supervise them. They could, conceivably, be doing eighty to ninety percent of all production…and I know how that feels, physically, mentally, psychologically.

In summer, I might get somewhere between seventeen and twenty-two or three hours a week. In winter, that can go as low as eleven to maybe fifteen hours a week. When you think about it, there’s not that many hours of work there to begin with—one of the reasons I go in for four hours, is all that driving. It’s not worth going in for two hours, that’s only thirty bucks and it’s still the same drive-time. It’s still the same wear-and-tear on the vehicle. I still have to do the same paperwork. With set-up time and clean-up time, it is much less efficient. The labour cost per load goes up, and the math is pretty simple.

With an employee, someone would still have to go in once in a while, just to make sure the garbage has been taken out—routine but important jobs like counting how many bags of flour, sugar, and salt are left.

Someone would still have to call the customer and the distributor, and quite frankly, keep the employee honest. If someone says they’re going in to work Tuesday morning, for four hours, and they plan on doing seven loads, then I would really need to know that it had actually been done. I don’t need surprises. When I do it myself, I know it has been done.

Now, we’re not talking twenty-three hours per week in summer. We’re talking some additional hours, in training, in supervision, in just keeping an eye on things. Our labour costs must, inevitably, go up. As it is, I work on an hourly basis. I make so much a week, a month or in a year. I train my own replacement, and give up so much in earnings. I’d still be waking up at five in the morning—the habits of a lifetime are hard to break, and yet now, I wouldn’t have anything to do. I would have nowhere to go, no real purpose to the day.

While I would like the help, in order to hire someone else, I have to give up enough hours or we’re training them to go in for what, two, three or four hours a week; certainly in winter. At some level, it’s no more worth it for them than it is for me.

This is why I’ve never really pushed for it. (In summer, we do get some help, we scramble, and we somehow make it through.)

And, for the next four days, bearing in mind last week’s order, it really will be some kind of a challenge.

***

Part of the job is washing totes, basically big plastic bins we use to ship our product. No one likes washing totes. So, I figured if no one else wants to do it, then these are my hours from now on. To wash thirty totes would take at least a half an hour, right? And after a while, no one washed totes any more.

This is how I made myself indispensable. No one else but the boss and I have ever called the customer, the distributor, or delivered to the customer. The other people were afraid to get too involved, maybe—oh, they’d take the money for a few hours, but otherwise, they remained unengaged with the business. Getting them in there in the first place was like pulling teeth from an alligator. I don’t know if this is typical, but it’s a family business, which often presents unique challenges.

At some point, I will be writing rent checks and paying the water bill—if I’m lucky, or if I ain’t careful, or something like that.

If I’m not careful, I will end up owning the place.

The last thing I ever expected was to become some kind of a fucking success.


END


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Tuesday, October 1, 2019

The Calculus of Uncertainty: the Problem of Random Inputs Insofar As It Relates to a Rapidly-Diminishing Curve. Louis Shalako.

"Come on, Louis. You can do it." Miss Purviss, my Grade One teacher.


Louis Shalako



I need to talk to a mathematician.

(Either that, or invent The Calculus of Uncertainty. – ed.)

***

Okay. A couple of weeks ago on Facebook, I said that if you could put only two extra payments on a $10,000.00 loan over four years, it is better to do it sooner rather than later.

I also said I couldn't really show the math. I will attempt to do so now. Just to keep it simple, we'll call it a 12 % Annual Percentage Rate, or one percent per month. Every month, they’re going to whack you with one percent on the remaining balance.

Assuming roughly a $250.00 monthly payment, let's say you throw an extra fifty bucks on that very first payment. Calculating on the balance, instead of owing $9,750.00, now you only owe $9,700.00. Either way, the bank tacks one percent onto the balance, and this is what you now owe. One percent of $9,750.00 equals $97.50, so now you owe $9,847.50. One percent of $9,700.00 is $97.00. Now you owe $9,797.00. Subtract one from the other. You have saved exactly fifty cents in interest, and there’s your fifty bucks too.* But after your next $250.00 payment, having put in an extra fifty only once, you owe $9,547.00. Add in one percent, i.e., $95.47. Not having put down any extra this time, your new balance would be $9,642.47. This is where it gets interesting. Subtract one from the other and you get a figure of $95.47. You have done something very strange there...your fifty bucks is there, and the other $45.47 had to come from somewhere.

So let's make that second payment of an extra fifty bucks on a balance of $9547.00.

That’s right, a measly fifty bucks.

That's now $9,497.00. One percent of that is $95.00 rounding off. The interest on your first, unmodified payment was $97.50, now, with only an extra pair of fifties on there, it is down to only $95.00. What happened there? Your interest is calculated on the balance, which is going down. By throwing in extra money, you are reducing the balance, as well as the interest payment, as quickly as possible. (It's still a one-percent rate for our purposes, and truth is, this math don't quite work out as my own rate is 8.99 %. I've also rounded up the payment a little, just to keep it simple.)

At this point, you still have forty-six payments. So, it’s $2.50 times forty-six…right? So, all other things being equal, you have saved roughly $115.00 TOTAL interest, over the course of the four-year term, and your last payment will obviously be a hundred less because you've already paid it off. If you did that about halfway through the loan period, you would arguably only save about $57.50 in TOTAL interest. You will also save any interest on the last hundred bucks, because you’ve already paid that, this is where my own lack of math skills makes the logic a bit muddy. (Or maybe you’ve already said it, three different ways. – ed.) Now, if your loan rate is higher, you save more money with everything extra you can put on it.

If I’m paying ten percent a year in interest, and you’re paying twenty percent, that is all calculated on the balance. The story is not really about rates per se. Lower is obviously better, no matter what you do with the payments.

However, you can look up stuff like this on any number of websites. These guys tend to think of making ‘extra’ payments a regular and monthly occurrence, for the full term of the loan, so their online calculator reflects that. In my current model, I cheated a bit and calculated ONE extra (full) payment of $250.00 as an ‘extra’ $5.20 per month in order to use the calculator. (It works out, more or less, although it must clearly have some curve of inaccuracy.) In any case, the sources agree as to the ‘mathematical certainty’ of saving a lot of money in interest and not incidentally, paying off the loan before term. So far, I have only made one extra payment on the loan, about three or four months in. My big goal is to put something extra on there in October, if I can possibly do it—it doesn’t have to be a full payment. A hundred would be an achievement in itself. The hours at work are slowing down and money will be tight over the winter. In January, I will get an HST rebate, and that might represent another opportunity. The opportunity to make a short-term sacrifice in order to receive a long-term benefit.

If you make one full, extra payment, $250.00, that very first month, you knock one month off the term of the loan, and that’s two-point-five times what we have done with our pair of fifties. So, that works out to $287.50 (or something on that order. – ed.) in TOTAL interest savings over the term of the loan, based on the simplistic reasoning of our first model. It’s actually more, and I would invite the reader to do the math on their own, using their own figures and their own loan or loans for a model. It bothers me that the bankers can do this math, (obviously), but I can’t. I have no way to check their figures, this is especially true in terms of throwing down random extra payments. I know it works, I just don’t quite know how…or by how much. Hence the Calculus of Uncertainty: the Problem of Random Inputs, Insofar As It Relates to a Rapidly-Diminishing Curve. I say that because conventional wisdom, as imparted by bankers to consumers, is that much of your first payment is taken up by interest, (which must, in effect, diminish over the course of the loan), while in my own interpretation, the interest is all on the back end of the loan—an example of what I call ‘inversion’, a kind of way of looking at bullshit and making sense of what they are Really Telling You.


What I'm telling you, is that if the cost of a four-year, $10,000.00 loan is $1,500.00, then the last six payments are essentially the cost of the loan. You just have six months of debt slavery to work off, and then you're done.

Basically, the less you know, the more they can take you for—but my own math shows that it’s a hundred out of the first two-fifty.


Other reasons for murkiness in the math include the fact that I might have gotten the loan halfway through the month. My first payment would, therefore, only be two weeks away.

The loan will be theoretically paid off, halfway through a month.

I might have put the extra payment down partway through the month as well.

Poor people study the sports pages, rich people study the interest rates. If my financial literacy was better, I could explain it better.

Here’s a nice, simple model. If you go in exactly two months before term, and put down exactly two payments of $250.00, or $500.00, at a twelve percent APR, (or one percent in our model), you should save exactly one percent, or five dollars. In other words, you give them $495.00. Your balance is zero, there is no compounding on zero. The real question, is what happens when you do it at the front end of the loan as opposed to the back end. 

(Editor: he was saying ten bucks, then he got confused and said five bucks. But it's two months at five each, better yet, five the second last month and two-fifty for the last one.)

As you can imagine, however intuitively, it should look like a pretty predictable curve. It starts high on one end, and ends up low on the other.

Any input, positive or negative, along that time-line will affect the resulting radius…simple, really. The real question is how much, in dollars and cents.

Two hundred and ninety bucks, for that one extra payment in total interest savings, is the best answer I can come up with. We save money, and shorten the term of the loan, which are two separate and distinct ends. Interestingly, the longer I wait, the less benefit I will receive…kind of an allegory there.

Speaking of the end, we have reached the point where I am only confusing myself further.

*Just as the interest compounds on the balance, your savings will also compound, so it’s actually more than fifty cents.

#math #work #money #business #superdough #Louis

Thank you for reading.


END


(Editor’s Note. Your first interest charge would be calculated on $10,000.00, or about a hundred bucks, but other than that, the story really is quite all right.) He also has some books and stories on Google Play.




Wednesday, September 4, 2019

A Stranger In Paris. Inspector Gilles Maintenon Mystery #9, Pt. 6. Louis Shalako.




Louis Shalako


Police were conducting inquiries in Montmartre, with some vague directions from Madame Daniau, and there was every likelihood of them finding the loft of Monsieur Saulnier.

Eventually, and that was the key—with the rent not being paid, sooner or later the landlord would come looking, and now, press coverage was mentioning names. Police are seeking the whereabouts of Monsieur So-and-So, anyone with information is encouraged to contact police, in person or by telephone at this number. The same could be said for Jean Cariveau

Uniformed officers, finding bi-weekly cheque stubs in his desk drawer, had attended the factory where he worked.

His employer hadn’t seen him in a couple of days. A good employee, he would be missed. 

His locker revealed nothing of interest, and his fellow employees had been hesitant, although everyone agreed that he had been a nice, polite young man. For that matter, the apartment had been unoccupied. The gentleman in question hadn’t simply been keeping quiet up there and hiding out from his landlady, for whatever reason. Unfortunately, this was negative evidence. 

It didn’t lead to an identification, although now they had a set of full prints…presumably of the man in question. It didn’t prove a damned thing, with no possibility of matching to any of their bodies. It didn’t prove he hadn’t just gotten fed up, chucked everything, and moved to the South Seas to paint, another Gauguin perhaps, or to study lizards or molluscs. Whatever. 

At this point, they could not prove otherwise.

All they had, so far, was speculation.

Hopefully, the banks would cooperate and they would soon get some financial information on their victims…at this point in the investigation, they could hardly be compelled. There had been a few other finger-prints from a few other individuals. There were at least more questions to be asked, and hopefully, Madame Bernier would be able to shed some light on that when more junior officers followed up.

One had to assume, taking such interest in her young tenant, she would have had some idea of who had been coming and going…perhaps only the maid, perhaps the lady herself—a delicate question to ask, but Maintenon thought not. There had been at least one or two others, judging by some solo prints and some other partials, and at this point, they were grasping at straws when it came to leads.

At this point, they had no real reason to ask her for a set of prints.

There was the question of resemblance between their two victims. The problem there was, the second victim was five centimetres shorter, a few kilos lighter, and all indications were that Jean had brown eyes and lighter, almost blond hair. Seven hundred francs on him. What was that money actually for? There were other resemblances, although perhaps not physical. 

These were more a matter of circumstance—the influence of the ladies, older women both, the fact that those reported missing were single males of a certain age and background, and all of this meant nothing.

It was still all just bullshit.

***

They’d gotten a lucky break. A tip from a landlord, one who read the papers assiduously, as the man had assured them, led them to Paul Saulnier’s loft-style apartment. There was no doubt as to the tenant, there were letters and papers and more than anything, finished and unfinished musical scores abounded.

Their key fit…it had not fit the door to the lady’s apartment. This did not necessarily prove that their victim was Saulnier. It was, however, evidence of some close connection, and the odds were that their victim would, eventually, prove to be Saulnier.

Maintenon was fishing, poking, prying open reluctant cupboard doors and yanking on jammed kitchen drawers.

There was a crummy old upright piano, as well as a classical guitar, a flute and some other obscure instruments, a bit dusty but otherwise serviceable to a budding composer, seeking inspiration perhaps or maybe just working out an obscure passage for the horn section…a seven-piece set of drums, which must have been wonderful for the neighbours.

There was some evidence of meal preparation, although the washing up had been done…

“A talented man.”

Andre raised an inquiring eyebrow.

“Really?”

Gilles nodded, holding a musical score. Saulnier had been using commercially-available printed blanks, with the lines and the treble clef on the left side where it belonged, and a couple of blank lines where the artist had filled in the title and the name of the composer.

A Stranger In Paris, by Jean-Paul Saulnier. Maintenon wasn’t sure that in needed to be capitalized, but admittedly didn’t know much about music publishing. Or maybe Saulnier just didn’t know that much about spelling—or accepted writing style—the rest of it seemed all right, though.

As for the police, they had their own accepted style book. The ultimate icon of a decadent society.

As someone somewhere must have once said.

The lyrics would appear to be sentimental, perhaps even haunting—if enough people ever heard it, it might very well have become a hit. There was no date, and the sheets were cleaner, more dust-free than some of the stacks on the upper shelves along the back wall of what must have once been a living room. The actual bedroom was tiny, the kitchen an organized mess, the bathroom not very clean but still organized for such a small space.

This particular one would appear to be complete, with a total of four sheets.

“I didn’t know you could read music.”

“Oh, I can read it, I just can’t play it. But this one looks musical enough. Note the change of key and tempo at the third refrain. It’s a bit daring, even for modern tastes.” Maintenon hummed a few bars, nodding appreciatively.

Picking up more sheets, they appeared to be hasty sketches of set decorations, coloured pencils and watercolour, what looked like Art Nouveau, backdrops and quite a few sheets of what looked like choreographed steps for couples, single dancers and the supporting troupe…a complex series of actions onstage, all laid out on paper.

As if in complete afterthought, down low and hastily scrawled in pencil, ‘the collective’.

Maintenon wondered what it meant, perhaps some avant-garde dance group somewhere. 

Maybe it was the title of an opera. A thing like this would take a fair number of people to pull it off. It’s the sort of thing the writer would have to deal with, if he ever had become a success.

There were a couple of thumps and faint voices from the other side of the door. A building of great age, he’d been noticing just how quiet it was, up there on the fifth floor, under the tiles. 

No buses, trams or the Metro up here. The stone and masonry walls, easily a metre thick, had been thickly plastered over, or framed and panelled and painted and varnished on the inside.

There was a light rap on the door from the uniformed constable stationed outside.

Presumably.

“Yes?”

The door opened a few centimetres and a pair of watery, pale blue eyes regarded them with some air of mischief. Through the crack, they could see a darker male bulk sort of hovering beside him, only half of a face as of yet.

“Yes?” Voice lower, Maintenon repeated the question.

“Sorry, sir. Sirs. It’s just that this gentleman claims he lives here—”

There was a startled gasp—

The face was gone, the door banged shut then slightly open again. There were grunts and heavy breathing, and hard shoes clunked and slithered on dusty old boards.

“Argh.”

“Sir. Sir—”

The door swung wide, and one angry young man, the officer still clinging to an arm and his belt, stood in the doorway, face red from exertion and the climbing of all those stairs.

“I say. Who in the hell are you, anyways?”

Andre turned and engaged Maintenon’s eye.

"Well. That's fucking torn it."
“Monsieur Paul Saulnier, one must presume.” Well, that’s torn it, thought Andre.

Especially as Madame Daniau had so very positively identified the body in the morgue as her Paul.

Merde.

***

Tall, spare and with a certain lean and hungry look, Roger Langeron was Prefect of the Paris police. Subordinate to the Minister of Justice, it was one step below, literally, from cabinet rank.

He’d never let that stop him, or the fact that he had been a life-long civil servant, with little actual police experience, from using his so-called hands-on approach. Sooner or later, he was bound to show up, with plenty of questions and a few ideas of his own. Where other men might have had a comb, he had a brush. Langeron favoured longish hair, the grey at the temples carefully corralled by dye elsewhere and by regular and professional trimming. With a face like that, sooner or later, he’d wind up on a banknote, as some were fond of saying.

He’d been reading the papers, of course, the silence in the squad room punctuated only by the ticking of the clock on the wall and the cooing of the doves on the window ledges. The sound of the gusting wind foretold another long, cold winter, and just around the corner too. Just then, the setting sun must have dropped below the lowering clouds, lighting up the far corners with a garish, hot orange light.

Langeron sighed.

“Unbelievable.”

“Yes, it’s true. We have nothing to hold him on—a missed identification by the lady, and a day or two absent without explanation, well. That doesn’t mean much.” The only trouble was, they still had a body or two on ice and no idea of whom they might have belonged to. “With no basis for a charge or an arrest, we had no very good right to search him. When we identified ourselves, he clammed up and asked for a lawyer—why, is a very good question. Surely he has nothing to fear from some unconnected, anonymous victim in an alley.”

Also, how would he know what it was about? Theoretically, he didn’t—

“You didn’t search him…for what, exactly?”

“How about a door key?” It came out harsher than Gilles meant.

Appearances aside, Langeron was anything but a fool.

“Hmn.” Brushing a speck of lint from his trousers, Roger nodded. “Ah. He shows up at the loft, just when the police are there—and one has to assume coincidence. One has to assume, that he still has a key.”

And almost any idiot could have two keys. Almost any rental agreement would specify at least a couple of keys…right? One could get a key cut for twenty centimes, and no questions asked, at any one of a thousand places. And that was just in town—assuming one wanted to be careful about it.

One had to assume that he wasn’t somewhere in the neighbourhood, nursing a cold coffee in some sidewalk bistro, and watching for the flics to arrive. Which they must do in some due course—assuming any kind of foresight, any kind of a plot—

Hmn.

Any kind of assumption was a bad thing, as stated clearly in the manual. Yet the key was clearly significant, assuming it didn’t belong in the dead man’s pocket to begin with.

But what if it did? That opened up another whole line of inquiry, all of it requiring manpower.

As Gilles had said, it was still all just bullshit

So far, anyways.

Even Langeron could see that, as the cold dead eyes of a salamander momentarily took in Andre, and Hubert kept his head down, taking whatever notes he could.

Andre spoke.

“What’s sort of interesting, is that he was wearing a ring.”

“A what? Oh, a ring. Huh.”

Saulnier, at least, had a ring. At the time. At the only time of direct observation.

“Yes—exactly.” Maintenon shook his head. “It’s one of those things, either it means everything, or it means nothing. And yet, if we are to have any hope whatsoever, of solving these crimes…it will almost inevitably be something. One, single, tiny, little thing, that gives it away.”

It would be the first thread. Pull on that, and whole damned sweater would unravel. Yet, at this point, Gilles just couldn’t see where to begin.

Langeron chewed on that for a moment.

Langeron had a brush where others might have a comb.
“And what about our second victim?”

“Merde. It’s the same thing again. A young man, absent from his workplace for a day or two. A few days at best. He had the weekend off, right. Then he doesn’t show up for a couple of days. It does not seem to be a money problem. They were not in trouble, they were not known to the police. Not known to be gamblers, or to frequent the race-track. No known love interests, other than the landlady, so to speak. So far, the second gentleman hasn’t turned up. As for an identification, Madame Bernier could not or possibly would not, say. Of course, she was hysterical. She is also the product of generations of sexual repression of the regular sort. And once again, the body has few if any unique marks, scars, tattoos, birthmarks. This is not evidence. It tells us nothing as to motive, if any, nor does it give any hint as to the identity of the killer.”

Then there was the poker chip in the pocket of victim number two. If he wasn’t a gambler, didn’t work in any such establishment, what was it doing there?

“Well. We need to tell the press something—”

That was his problem and Maintenon thought otherwise. He would tell them nothing at all, if he thought he could get away with it.

“Tell them we are pursuing all possible leads.”

Langeron snorted, and gave his head a distinct shake. He grinned, and in his case it was sincere.

Some real humour there. It quickly faded. He rubbed his polished cheeks for a moment, completely unconsciously.

“All right, Gilles.” He sighed, deeply.

He could only push so hard, and Maintenon was probably the best man for the job.

If anyone could catch such a lunatic, it would be Gilles.

“That was a pretty good speech the other day, or so I hear.” He’d been out of town, oddly enough—

“Thank you. Thank you very much.” The truth was, the speech hadn’t been very good.

Langeron probably knew that too.

For some reason, Maintenon just wasn’t built for making speeches. It wasn’t his métier.


END

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