Showing posts with label analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label analysis. Show all posts

Monday, September 23, 2024

Bring Out Your Dead: The Black Death and Demographic Decline. Louis Shalako.

Jan van Eyck. Detail from the Crucifixion Dyptich.









Louis Shalako



In the Middle Ages, the Black Death swept the world.

Estimates are that thirty to sixty percent of the population died in Europe, thirty percent or more in the Middle East, in waves, large numbers at a time. Bring out your dead, all very funny in a Monty Python sketch but real enough at the time.

There weren’t enough people left to bury the dead. Rents fell, many demesnes languished empty. There weren’t enough people left to farm the land. There weren’t enough people left to take up vacant lands, which were soon overgrown with weeds and brambles.

Aristocrats and wealthier people had a better chance of survival, better diet perhaps, but also the ability to withdraw to the countryside and go into a kind of lockdown.

Landowners saw their incomes fall, yet many of their own costs remained high, considering numbers of servants and retainers. Their administrators had to be paid, legal affairs in a litigious age were costly.

We can’t really compare this with Covid-19, which might have taken fifteen or twenty million in a global pandemic. This is partly due to all the pandemic-era measures taken by governments around the world, democratic or totalitarian, very strict in the case of New Zealand and fairly loose in the case of Sweden. There are certain countries where the numbers are probably not trustworthy, North Korea or Russia, China for example.

Yet we are in the middle of a labour shortage, here in Canada and in pretty much all developed nations.

This is caused by the aging of the population, this is caused by falling birthrates, again in pretty much all of the developed nations.

Old people just don’t want to work anymore—

This is why the federal government pulled out the stops and accepted a million new Canadians in a recent year. When I was a kid, Canada had a population of about 20 million. Fifty years later, it has barely doubled, and this with the benefit of fairly liberal immigration policies.

***

We simply aren’t making babies fast enough to replace ourselves, let alone grow the population.

It’s not a big die-off, rather it is the result of falling birthrates. At one time, eighty to ninety percent of Canadians lived on the farm or in rural communities. Efficiencies of production now means that it takes fewer hands to produce the same or larger crops. People moved to the cities where the work was available, the wages were higher and opportunities abound.

Typically, Canadians don’t take those back-breaking jobs, labouring in the hot sun and getting paid a few cents a basket for cherries, or tomatoes or whatever, which means we must import even that kind of unskilled labour. New Zealand has a big problem, with 130,000 people leaving last year, mostly for Australia and beyond. Poverty is not the problem, but high costs of housing, food, and all the usual suspects. People think they stand a better chance of prosperity somewhere else.

So far, Canada is not really showing too many signs of that, although the U.S. is a big draw for certain types of professionals. Doctors and nurses come to mind, and then there are the artists, actors and musicians, who might be able to afford living in Canada, but for an actor, Hollywood is where the big money is.

People are living longer and longer, mostly due to good health care, the envy of much of the world. This is one of the attractions of Canadian life.

There are people who honestly believe in ‘replacement theory’. They drive past the bus stop, perhaps the one near the intersection of London and Murphy roads right here in Sarnia, and what do they see? All those beautiful young people, many of them foreign students and people of colour. It reinforces their beliefs, fueled by far-right conspiracy theorists and other folks just trying to force the narrative to conform to their own bigoted views and a kind of not-too-subtle racism.

There is little doubt that governments at the federal and provincial dropped the ball when it came to housing, bearing in mind all that increased demand due to immigration and international students. This is not a statement of my own ideology. Between the federal and provincial and territorial governments across Canada, we have Liberal, Conservative and NDP governments to blame, if blame is our game. I’ve always found the blame game kind of useless. Bearing in mind the lack of concrete and specific suggestions, what good is it? Also, foreign students contribute cash money to our system of higher education.

That little glass slipper will soon be pinching the foot that wears it, and some of those educational programs, some of those opportunities must dry up and blow away without serious increases in funding, perhaps even at Lambton College here in Sarnia.

People think the government doesn’t listen. I think they do listen, which is why I make a point of talking to them once in a while. It’s never done any real harm, and it might have even done some good along the way.

When it comes to foreign students, their money, their very numbers were being exploited to subsidize a system that is chronically underfunded otherwise. We will not escape the consequences.

Just for the record, we elect the governments we deserve, and this holds true at all levels.

 

END


Louis Shalako, founder of Long Cool One Books, is the author of twenty-four books, available from major online retailers. Louis studied Radio, TV and Journalism at Lambton College, later studying fine art. He began writing for community newspapers and industrial magazines forty years ago. His work has appeared in seven languages.

Louis Shalako has books and stories available fromAmazon.

 

Thank you for reading.

 

Background and Facts.


New Zealand. (The Guardian)

France, Pension Reform. (Foreign Policy)

The Black Death. (Wikipedia)

Colleges Affected. (Ottawa Citizen)




Bring Out Your Dead, Monty Python.





Friday, June 7, 2024

Digging Deep. Approvals Are Nothing. Shovels in the Ground Are Everything. Louis Shalako.

This building is under construction at 1550 Venetian Boulevard, Pt. Edward, Ontario.












Louis Shalako






Approvals are Nothing. Shovels in the Ground Are Everything.


Locally, approvals for housing developments of all kinds add up to either 2,400, or even 3,500, depending on who you ask, or maybe just in how we choose to define them. Yet there are very few shovels in the ground. Some of the approvals go back so many years, they have been forgotten.

So, how many affordable, geared-to-income units has the County of Lambton built in the last twelve months? Three, ladies and gentlemen…just three. Habitat for Humanity is doing a better job than that, although mere charity can never be a solution for low-cost housing. It doesn’t even work that well for poverty…

The former Bayside Mall was successfully demolished, and a new building put up for Shared Services and the Ministry of Community and Social Services. Driving by, at some point, one began to wonder at the lack of progress. The Covid-19 pandemic put a hold on a lot of projects. But this one never started up again. No further work has been done, and an announcement has been made that the whole thing is off, whether that is temporary or permanent is a good question. It’s a big, flat area in the middle of downtown, and nothing is happening there.

Affordable, Geared-to-Income Indigenous Housing at 940 Confederation St. has been delayed due to unexpectedly high construction costs. (40 units)

St. Demetrios Church on Murphy Road has hit a roadblock due to funding program changes. (Up to 46  units)

Former Devine St. School to become senior’s housing.(100 units)

An elected official has stated that there was a change in ownership. Whether that means the land or the company have been sold, or whether one or more partners walked away, is unclear.

Former St. Peter’s School to become senior’s housing.(104 units)

Former High Park Church to become affordable housing. (20-23 units)

Housing eyed for former St. Paul’s Church in Sarnia. (Unknown number of units)

Developer has plans for the historic Central United Church. (10-15 accessible units)

Out of the Cold Program to utilize Laurel Lea Church on Exmouth Street. This is a winter-seasonal homeless shelter, with a possible plan for further affordable housing.

So, Kathleen St. has been proposed as the site of some new development for affordable housing. The city owns the land—unfortunately, the county is in charge of social housing, which means that it won’t get built anytime soon, no matter how much fair, impartial and objective news coverage it appears to receive. (50 units)

The city has or is giving away an underused parking lot on Victoria Street, again, the county will be responsible for actually building it. I have a funny feeling that one ain’t going to happen anytime soon. Mayor Mike Bradley, seconded by Councilor Bill Dennis, both members of county council entered a motion challenging Lambton County Social Services to complete any project within eighteen months. This may relate to the council’s response to a request for a study of putting washrooms at Rainbow Park. (See below.)

The county’s project, Maxwell Place, has some serious problems. The project, affordable, geared-to-income housing for vulnerable senior citizens is stalled for the second time. Holes were excavated, foundation work was done. One day all the contractors went home and nothing has been done since. Apparently, the county is looking for a contractor willing and able to complete the project. Which won’t happen as long as litigation is before the courts. Also, people aren’t talking, this is especially true with the possibility or likelihood of litigation before the courts. Another fine mess, whether that has anything to do with the prefab construction methods or what is unknown, however the upper structural modules are said to be in storage locally… (24 units)

So county council, in what appears to be a misinterpretation, refused to put in ‘washrooms’ at the Rainbow Park homeless encampment, when really, portable johns would appear to be desirable as an interim measure. According to Mr. Agar, ‘a city park and a city homeless encampment is a city problem’, I might have had a little more sympathy if the county could actually complete a project of almost any sort, in any sort of time frame, and at almost any sort of cost—

When county council voted pretty much unanimously to fund a five-year study on homelessness and affordable housing shortly after the 2018 election, that was a dead giveaway. And, of course, they can’t do anything until the study is completed, which it was. And it was the most wishy-washy, most waffling sort of document that has been seen in many years around here, with plenty of talk about leveraging synergies and shifting paradigms, and identifying core areas of need, assessing individual requirements and designing one-size-fits-all living spaces, (unless there's something different about you), and partnerships, and stakeholders, and consultations—they can never get enough consultations with stakeholders, ladies and gentlemen. Oddly enough, the only stakeholders not invited are the ones who are actually supposed to live in these places, assuming they ever get one built. In that sense, it’s like the ‘consultations’ undertaken before the legalization of recreational cannabis: the only people who never got to speak were the very people who were supposedly to benefit from said legalization. I may be exaggerating slightly, but I think not—

There are some success stories.

Bayfront is one of a small number of local success stories. It can hardly be described as affordable, even so, it does tend to take the pressure off of other apartments and condominiums in the local area. Presumably, the tenants/lessees aren’t all that interested in home ownership per se, and here, at least on the river side, you have views of the water. Clearly, the tenants can afford to pay the rent.

The Addison is a newly built apartment tower, the property once housed what used to be a grocery store and a department store. It is ‘relatively affordable’, yet no one on disability or welfare could afford even a one-bedroom, even if they had a partner, bearing in mind clients of ODSP lose all or a portion of their ‘shelter portion’, if they attempt to share housing costs. I told the Ministry that this tended to cause homelessness many, many years ago. (They don't care. - ed.) This sort of thing is ‘baked in’ to the legislation. The social workers can’t do much about that, and for governments, Liberal or Conservative, it seems to create some sort of mental block. The result, is that they might study it endlessly, but no one has the guts to take that one big step, which would result in a total, ground-up, nuts and bolts revision of the guidelines. The real problem, is that it costs money, the government is responsible to the taxpayers, and the NIMBYs and nay-sayers are all over the place. They’re down on the riverbank, burning a candle in order to raise awareness of the stigma…etc, etc, etc, and getting some good front-page coverage while doing it.

Looking southeast, London Rd. and Christina St.

The former Sarnia General Hospital Site sat empty and derelict for some years after closure. Homeless people and others were breaking into the site and stealing copper wire, piping, anything that they could turn into a dollar. It was a nightmare for the neighbours, police and the city. The city eventually paid to have it taken down, turned it over to private enterprise, and at least there is semi-detached housing along Elgin Street, and a pair of low-rise towers are presently under construction. They have progressed to the point of brickwork on the exterior, doors and windows are in, one would assume interior finishing work is progressing. What the actual rent scale will be is unknown. The city paid $5.4 million for demolition and the developers paid $1,000.00 for a property estimated at a value of $1.4 million. One hell of an incentive, but maybe that’s what it takes these days.

A development of approximately 154 detached homes is slated for a parcel of land along London Line. A model home appears to have been built. Yet high-end or luxury housing is not going to solve the problem of affordability in this town, this county, or anywhere else in this country. This end of the market really does rely on market forces, rather than any great subsidies from multiple levels of government. This market exists—and the customer can afford to pay the mortgage.

Here’s the County’s own Report Card, in which they give themselves all A’s.

Looking northeast from the same intersection. Churches make bad housing, except for God.

There is a supportive housing thing on London Road. In a recent news story, there were only a small number of at-risk youth in residence. The folks that built it had $1.2 million of their own money to contribute. The money came to some extent from their success with Emergency 401 or something like that.

Here is a proposed combined detached/townhouse development in Petrolia, which seems logical enough as it relies on market conditions and customer demand. It requires some rezoning, which will quickly be granted. This story was published June 6/24. Yet, even if it happens, it does take some time for ‘shovels in the ground’ and the project to come to fruition.

Point Edward Apartment Takes Shape Quickly.

Brush Cleared for Housing in Point Edward.

Former Holmes Foundry Lands Planned for Development.16 Acres in Total.

Poor people study the sports pages. Rich people study the interest rates. The Bank of Canada has just lowered the rate from 5 % to 4.75 %. There are institutional lenders, then there are institutional borrowers. OPM, ‘other people’s money’, a bit of a mantra among entrepreneurs. As my grandfather would have said, don’t bet the farm on it. Very few corporations have a couple of hundred million laying around, just waiting to be thrown at a housing development. This is not like the stock market, where you can make multiple trades a day, totalling in the millions, and perhaps make a quick profit—or a quick loss. There is a time lag. Nothing happens quickly in this industry, and sometimes nothing ever happens at all, even with ‘approvals’. The bigger the project, the longer the time lag. A new development takes time to build, it takes time to sell it out and fill it up, and it takes time to recoup that investment. The real professionals are looking at the ‘split’, how much does it cost to borrow, interest paid, and how long does it take to pay it off—and how long does it take before the development produces a profit for the shareholders. The split is between income and outgo—a word I may have just invented.

When the conditions are right, building and development will begin anew. Until then, not much joy.

Time for analysis. This is where we compare apples, oranges—and green bananas, which as we are all aware, go bad fairly quickly…

First the commonalities. The successful projects were private ventures. Some of the unsuccessful ones were also private ventures. In an assumption, the successful projects had funding secured, arguably, before the pandemic, and before the interest rates started really climbing. Inflation played some role, bearing in mind the Bank of Canada rate was raised from a nominal .25 % up to 5 %, all of which happened in a very short time. However, if you and your bank had signed a contract, and approved your funding at a given rate, the bank will honour that contract unless it is time-limited. Use it or lose it, in other words.

Some, but not all of the unsuccessful projects may not have had their funding secured. They may not have had funding at all, relying on government grants and low or zero-interest loans. Some of those programs were also time-limited. Any government program has only so much funding. It is first come, first served with some of these programs.

Some of the ‘unsuccessful’ projects may not have been the result of serious intention. If you’re trying to interest buyers in your property, the fact that you have perhaps gotten some variance in the zoning or other bylaws, the fact that some pie-in-the-sky project has been approved by a municipal or county council, might carry some weight with potential purchasers.

Some of the even more unsuccessful projects may represent fantasy more than reality. This especially applies to old churches. The congregation may no longer be able to support the costs of such a building, and the mother church may have gone bankrupt.

Yet they hate like hell to see the thing torn down as well. It’s a perfectly good building and a perfectly good cause, right?

In a previous story, I discussed the difficulty of converting the classic 1960s elementary school to housing, and the issues sort of double or triple if the thing is multi-story, for example the old SCITS here in Sarnia, on Wellington Street. Some folks thought it was a no-brainer for affordable housing. Assuming relatively low rents as ‘affordable’ any economic case, not even for profit, just to keep the building going over the longer term, is unsustainable. Affordable rents do not cover the costs of an unaffordable building.

Locally, several of the churches listed above are huge, very old-fashioned structures. They might even be described as beautiful in their own way. Some of them are historic, but only the bats and the chimney swifts really want to live in that big belfry on the end of the building. The rest of the place represents one big, tall, vast space. That space has no supporting structure. To divide that up into floors will require that structure to be put in place. So now, you’re figuring out how to dig foundations deep into the ground. At the very least, you need to get a backhoe into the building…

The writer is not an engineer, what he does do is to ask questions—or maybe just run a few thought experiments. The writer spent much of his life in construction, and structures are not entirely unfamiliar.

Some very nice people are talking about fundraising. At the risk of being rude or insulting, you can’t fund such a project within any sort of time-frame by running bake-sales or charity bingo games.

(Otherwise the Canadian Armed Forces would be doing it. – ed.)

What they are looking for is public funding, or some rather large donations. Yet the government is not unsophisticated when assessing such requests. Neither are the large donors, and not too many people have ten or twelve or more millions laying around, and if they did, you are really going to have to impress them. You are really going to have to make a case, a good case, for that particular building. So far, this has been unsuccessful.

These are the green bananas, going off rather quickly.

There are actually a few shovels in the ground here in Sarnia-Lambton. The skilled trades, the professional contractors, are the only people who can make things happen in the sense of construction and renovation, and they will go where the money is. For the most part, that is private money, paid by professional developers. Any contracting business runs on money. The skilled trades do not work on charity. They have their own homes, families and their own mortgages to feed.


Update: the county has just offered to buy St. Bartholemew Church, which is in the north end of this city. This may be a bit of a revenge ploy on the part of county, as the NIMBYs and naysayers will be freaking out at the thought of poor people moving into the neighbourhood, bringing down property values. This is where that good old stigma rears its very useful head. Essentially, in this scenario the county looks good and the city will be revealed for what it is. This is why they simply must mention mental health and addictions in any news story of poverty, homeless and disability. There will be endless rounds of consultation, site plans, and there is many a slip between the crouch and the leap, as my old sabre instructor used to say...

Also. I mentioned that some of these approvals go back so many years, they have been forgotten. I had forgotten this long-term care development. It doesn't really fit the definition of affordable housing, except that the elderly are people too. This story dates back to May 3, 2021, where the city sold the land for $250,000.00 and the plan is to replace Sumac Lodge. This land is three kilometres from the original site, which is still open. The site had been shut to new admissions, pending health and safety repairs and upgrades. Also, three years have gone by.  Driving by on the way to work, the location of this land is sort of difficult to confirm, although there are open areas in between homes and businesses.

 

Louis spells councillor with one 'L', my dears.

END


Analysis: Turning Federal Buildings into Affordable Housing. Louis Shalako.


Louis has books and stories available from Google Play in ebook and audiobook formats.

Louis has some art and stuff on Fine Art America.


Note. Louis spells councillor with one letter ‘L’. Other than that, he really is quite all right. – ed.

 

Thank you for reading, and listening.



Sunday, May 26, 2024

Algorithms, and How to Get One Million Hits On Your Blog. Louis Shalako.

Looks like I picked the wrong day to stuff them keywords...












Louis Shalako




A recent story (BBC I think), noted that Google had diddled the algorithms and killed a lot of traffic to established websites. My latest story has a grand total of 25 reads or hits.

Over fourteen years, the site has garnered 961 k hits. My first blog post wasn't very good.

It took a week to get a handful of hits, some of which might have been indexing bots or even my own reads, which can be managed through the site. But this is why I think people quit blogging. They have a dozen or so stories up, and they don't keep it up because it looks like it isn't working. Looking at the big spikes in the graph: someone adjusted their algorithms and I got 60,000 hits from France in a few months. (Page bottom). The next big spike, came out of nowhere, and traffic was unusually high at a time when I really wasn't doing much with the blog, although I routinely repost old stories. I routinely repost online serial content, including Heaven Is Too Far Away.

I'm the only guy I know who does online serial fiction. I was probably the first, and possibly the last, to serialize a manuscript before the book was even finished...

Once you have the content, (and my blog is close to 1,200 posts), you can recycle it in various ways. You can also update the links, fix a typo, add photos, etc. I hope to have one million hits sooner rather than later—I had hoped by summer, but things have definitely slowed down, for whatever reason.

When I get a million hits, I'm going to call up the newspaper—

I have scraped my own blog for a new ebook or short story. An example would be One Million Words of Crap, available for free as an audiobook from Google Play. 

Lately, I am replacing Smashwords links with sites that are still up and running as ebook aggregators, yes; I have paperbacks and audiobooks as well. I found out about Smashwords on Facebook. As I said, when I repost a story, I can update as well. I can take out dead links and add in a new one.

Smashwords and Draft2Digital have merged and the books will surface over there in a month or two.

Scary shit for beginners.

When you go to edit an old story on Blogger, the interface might show the code. People take one look at that and it’s “…fuck. I can’t do that—”

Well, just so you know, for the first six months, I didn’t even know what a tag was. The site can be a bit glitchy at times, but just keep hacking away and you will get it. When formatting, it's hack, hack, hack, then preview. Save, then hack some more...confidence is everything, and patience is everything else.

On the upper left, click on ‘compose mode’ and its back to the old familiar interface. Just a quick pro tip, I compose in a Word doc and that way I can control the font size. There are just a lot more tools in the doc format. I prefer 13-pt Times New Roman. I copy and paste from the doc file.

It was at Genrecon, held at the Sarnia Library in 2009 where I met Douglas Smith. I cornered him for a minute and introduced myself and all of that. He is the one who suggested a couple of things. One was to join Facebook. The other was to try a free blog from Blogger. And we all know how that went.

When I signed up for Facebook, one of the first things I said was: “Whoever invented this is a genius.”

And I was right, too.

The blog is fairly flexible. You can change themes, change colours and fonts. Click around on all the buttons in order to figure out what to do. The widgets are handy, as you can see from the right-hand column. I had to fight for quite some time to get Google to take ads off of the blog. They were telling me that I had some kind of problem with the blog, and they weren’t paying me for blog hits. I said, if you’re not paying for blog hits, please take the ads off of my blog. I will never see a penny of it anyways. In fourteen years of blogging, they owe me $25.88 and the threshold for payment is $100.00. If you’re in this for the money, you might want to prepare for a little disappointment…and a few spammers in the comment section.

'Compose mode' is a lot more civilized.
Their help pages are impenetrable. I couldn’t make heads or tails of what they wanted me to do, and I did provide feedback, more than once, to exactly no response whatsoever.

You can stuff keywords into your posts, but a handful of tags will do nicely.

You might read Active Versus Passive Blogging.

The best thing you can do is to produce regular, interesting, helpful and informative content. Entertain the people. Sing for your supper. As for myself, I do enjoy the work, and that is always something.

Right. And if I die, and if Google gets to keep my $25.88, then I guess that’s what the service was worth. In other words, not much, but the actual blog is what you make of it. My most popular story is Ghost Planet, with over twelve thousand reads...over ten or twelve years. I won't stick in a link for that one. If you would like to take a look at it...you will have to Google it.

(Tricky, Louis. - ed.)

(Yes, but it might also work.)

And, in the meantime, it is a useful promotional tool.

#Louis


END

Click on the image to enlarge.


From the BBC: Google's New Algorithm.

The website of Douglas Smith.

Louis has some art on ArtPal.

See his works on Google Play.


Thank you for reading.

 


 





 

 

 


Saturday, September 9, 2023

Moonraker: a Technical Analysis of the 1979 James Bond Film. Louis Shalako.

The structure is typical for the era, shiny and mostly bullshit...

 




Louis Shalako




In the James Bond film Moonraker, in the opening scenes, a space shuttle is stolen off the back of a Boeing 747. 

You may remember the scene, where a couple of guys sneak out of the broom closet or the pantry or somewhere. They fire up the engines, and take off, with the blast destroying the plane. 

(Yeah, piss-poor security, eh. - ed).

The empty weight of the shuttle would be about 165,000 lbs. It was transported on the back of a 747. That part is real. It really did happen, sort of. There would be no payload, obviously, what is really interesting is that there would be no fuel either. That is because the engines were fueled from the massive central tank system, additional boost coming from the solid-fuel rockets strapped onto that. So the entire premise of the film is bogus from scene one. Further criticisms are sort of redundant, and yet I plan on doing it anyways...

(That's our Louis. - ed.)

I could mention that the aircraft crashes in northern Canada and Drax’s shuttle base is in South America, or at least somewhere with some really big fucking snakes.

You simply can’t get there from here. There is no reason for the onboard tank, which would be located behind the cargo bay and ahead of the engines, to have any fuel at all in such a scenario. 

It is true, that the shuttle was glide-tested, and landings were conducted in order to gain the knowledge necessary to fly and land the thing. That was one reason for the whole 747-rig, that and transport between assembly and launch pad. Landing gear might get a lot of assistance from gravity, but they do have to contend with aerodynamic forces, and you want them to fully deploy and to lock into position. This implies some sort of powered system. You want to see three green lights on your dashboard. Two greens and one red would be real bad news—

It’s not rocket science, ladies and gentlemen—

It's not rocket science, Mister Bond...

#snork

You don’t use reaction control in the atmosphere, not when you have rudder, ailerons, elevators, all of which could run on battery-powered electric servo-motors. You don’t use reaction control to run the pumps and compressors for the hydraulic landing gear system, for example. All you need are batteries, in fact otherwise powerless aircraft have been saved by deploying a wind-turbine into the slipstream in order to generate minimal electrical power. With electrical power, temperature is less of a consideration, you don’t want an air tank or a fluid, hydraulic system to freeze up just when you need it most. And if you want to trickle a little bit of heat to any such system, you still need a battery.

Drax's shuttles do have external tanks, and solid boosters, and their cargo bays are full of people. They did that much research, they checked that many facts. Once that central tank is dropped, minimal fuel is aboard the shuttle, that is for maneuvering and re-entry, otherwise you're kind of stuck up there. The big problem there, is that the blast from all engines popping off at once in an enclosed space, would surely destroy the shuttles, all of them, as they were built as lightly as possible…also, there is no way in hell Bond and Doctor Goodhead could ever outrun the blast, directed as it is down, in an enclosed space, with ducts and tubes and all of that. Even so, Bond and Doctor Goodhead seem to be blasting along in Drax's personal Shuttle Five all right, trying to shoot down the pods that are to dispense the bug-juice, thereby destroying the human race…right? Those lasers run on electrical power from one source or another...

Oh, James...

As you know, in the actual shuttle flights, the solid boosters dropped off first, the shuttle riding the tank up a little higher, but of course it's the bottom part of that equation that takes most of the energy—going from zero miles per hour, at the bottom of that gravity well. The force of gravity varies inversely to (or with), the square of the distance, as we recall from our elementary school exercises, ladies and gentlemen. The higher you get, the less the force of gravity upon your 'body', organic, celestial, or man-made machine. The force of gravity would be an accelerating (or decelerating) curve, the further you get away from Earth.

Bearing in mind Drax's space station has a 'radar jamming system', even if it worked, (and not just putting out a strong signal in the sky, over a large band of frequencies, which could hardly be missed), such a large object would be visible due to simple reflected sunlight. You can see the ISS, (International Space Station) on any clear night, (even when it's dark out), and you can even track it online so you know where and when to look. The only thing more predictable than an orbit, is a geosynchronous orbit, if I may submit. That's because it ain't actually going anywheres, it just sits there in one spot all the fucking time. It's not really clear what Drax's station is doing from the available information, probably nothing if you ask me...

The ISS is a lot smaller than Drax's space station. I won't worry you with the artificial gravity, although with that central area allegedly 'horizontal', and the station rotating in the vertical axis, there are so many technical problems with this film that it isn't even funny. It has been said the series became, over time, a parody of itself. As for the actual structure, this thing is hardly designed for stealth.

The best part of this film is when Bond comes in the front door of the glass works in Venice. That girl—yeah, that one right there, that one interests me. She makes a lot of other women look like boys...

As for an amphibious gondola, coming up out of the water and zooming off through the square by what is presumably St. Mark's Cathedral, that one is just plain ridiculous. Everyone likes ‘Q’, the scenes where they ride across the pampas to the theme from The Magnificent Seven are cute. Just cute. Fight scenes in a glass museum, tossing a guy out through an antique clock, well, they’re always fun and satisfying for the audience.

Everyone loves me...'Q'.

***

I took my girlfriend to this film when it first came out. It was a thing, these were popular films and the truth is, we had a good time. These films are, first and foremost, entertainment.

I’ve mentioned fight scenes on top of cable-cars in a previous blogpost.

Stealing a parachute in mid-fall is of course hopeless…boat chases and runaway aircraft appear in other Bond films, in fact they reprise themselves surprisingly often. There are hang-gliding scenes in this film and in Live and Let Die, then there is the gyrocopter in You Only Live Twice, the jet-pack scene in Goldfinger and the car-plane in The Man With the Golden Gun. The battle in space, forces conveniently colour-coded, reprises the underwater scene in Thunderball and the ninjas-dropping-from-above of You Only Live Twice.

Right?

There were reasons why this series sort of fell away for a while and in fact it was Timothy Dalton that sort of breathed new life into it. It was still bad, in many ways, but it was at least watchable. Timothy Dalton is not gay, which puts his performance in The Lion in Winter, (Peter O'Toole, Katherine Hepburn, Anthony Hopkins), into its proper perspective and all the more impressive because of that...

 

#technical_stuff

 

END

 

Images. Stolen from the internet.

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See his works on Fine Art America.

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Thank you for reading.

 

 

 


Monday, September 4, 2023

Alistair Maclean's Where Eagles Dare: a Series of Plot-Holes Flying in Close Formation. Louis Shalako.

Heidi, Major Smith, and Mary Ellison in Where Eagles Dare.




Louis Shalako





Alistair Maclean’s Where Eagles Dare is one of the most popular war films of all time. I bought the book at about the age of eighteen. I liked Alistair Maclean so much, that I bought every book of his that I could find. Over the course of time I owned, and have read many of them, (some of them, many, many times), but by no means all of them.

Every so often, I search the internet looking for crummy old movies, which I like very much. I watch this film several times a year, as well as Ice Station Zebra, The Guns of Navarone, Force 10 from Navarone, When Eight Bells Toll, Bear Island, Puppet on a Chain and of course Breakheart Pass. There are some I simply can’t find. One or two, I can find them but the thing is unwatchable, either due to poor reproduction or poor sound.

Some of these old films were taken off a television screen with a camcorder, dubbed more than once, and it really shows sometimes. Also, volume is often an issue, if you’re going to upload videos to the internet, for crying out loud, turn up the fucking volume already…we can turn it down ourselves if we have to.

River of Death is just plain bad, Donald Pleasance, Michael Dudikoff and Robert Vaughn, Herbert Lom and L.Q. Jones are unable to save it by mere presence alone. One pretty girl cannot save a bad film, ladies and gentlemen. (Full cast.)

***

As entertaining as the film is, Where Eagles Dare is riddled with plot holes and just plain inconsistencies.

Hopefully the reader understands that as a student of writing, one can learn a lot by attention to detail—a good lesson for any writer or director, then there is a bit of logical analysis, and then there is good old fact-checking.

For example, in the opening scene, a Junkers JU-52 aircraft simply does not have the range to fly from the U.K. to southern Germany, and return. The range is quoted at 620 miles, top speed of 165 mph. Cruising speed would be less. The town of Werfen is a real town, it’s in Austria, part of Germany after the Anschluss, not far from the Bavarian border. At its maximum speed, even if it had the range, you would be flying in enemy airspace for hours and hours at a time. You would have to do it twice in what looks like about twenty-four hours, for they parachute and land in darkness, hang out all day, leave in the night and take off in at least some daylight…

The action takes place before D-Day, in fact the fake General Carnaby was supposedly flying to Crete to consult with his Russian counterparts prior to the invasion, where some sort of coordination, or maybe just notification, would be in order.

Only problem there, is that Crete was not liberated until 1945—a simple statement of fact, which can be checked.

Also, assuming you just stole a JU-52 off a nearby airbase, every fighter and anti-aircraft battery in Western Europe would be looking for that plane, which would be lumbering along at 130-mph or whatever. Your best bet would be to head for Switzerland, and if the plane was simply stolen, there would be no way for Colonel Turner to be there in the final, climactic scene. And why send the Colonel along in the first place? It would be so much wiser just to arrest him while he’s still in England, still at headquarters, where armed people abound, hell, they might even have a cell to put him in. This is the significance of the scene where the Admiral asks, 'do you have it?' as Colonel Turner and the others have been under suspicion for some time. One wonders why they didn't just arrest him and sweat him a little, but then there would be no film...right? At this point, the other enemy agents are expendable and nothing but a hindrance to any escape plan...

Google. 2,292.9 miles.

It gets better. The fake general was aboard a de Havilland Mosquito, which might have had the range for a one-way trip to Crete in the long-range reconnaissance version which was developed for the Pacific Campaign, and they did range all over Europe. The bomber version has a quoted range of 1,300 miles. Launched from Suffolk, the distance to Crete is over 2,200 miles. Riddled with English bullet holes, as Major Smith (Richard Burton) says, it crash landed, conveniently enough, ten miles away at a German military airfield. No mention is ever made of what happened to the British pilot of that aircraft, one supposes the prisoners were kept separated in what is standard operating procedure.

Standard operating procedure is virtually ignored all through this film.

Okay, upon arrival by parachute, which would have made more sense if it had been from a Stirling bomber, or the Halifax, both of which were used by airborne forces, Sergeant Harrod is found dead. Assuming all of the others were wearing the same, standard issue boots, even so, it would have been possible to simply follow the tracks, for surely Harrod himself didn’t make too many. Seven people come down scattered. To rendezvous with the gear, seven (or six, to be accurate) sets of tracks converge on a point. Searching for the missing Harrod, six sets of tracks go out from that point in some kind of search pattern. Bearing this in mind, watching the film, we can see any number of tracks, one of the challenges of filming on location in wintertime. Yet Smith makes no attempt to follow any tracks. Yet he knows that Harrod has been murdered, taking into account all the bullshit about marks on the neck and stuff. Presumably the mission comes first. Presumably, they already have their suspicions of at least some of this crew already...in the film, the next to go is Jock, which tends to indicate his innocence.

Ingrid Pitt as Heidi.

As for Lieutenant Schaffer, (Clint Eastwood in one of many iconic roles), we know he's innocent, as Smith points out he's an American, and brought in for just this purpose...he's untainted by Britishness or something. Right.

Bloody well right...

(Louis is getting ahead of the plot here. - ed.)

The party proceeds to a small farmhouse in a high alpine meadow, seasonal accommodation fairly common in that part of the world. And he says, that while grabbing the radio, he has forgotten the codebooks. He has to go back, theoretically, for he actually did take them, this after sending the party back for the equipment. He goes out to the barn, where he meets the Mary Ellison character, after ordering the others not to leave the building. Yet it seems odd that not one of them ever needs to go the outhouse, for there is no likelihood of indoor plumbing in such a dwelling…

What is interesting is that never, at any time in the film, do they use code. They use call-signs, broadcasting in the clear, “Broadsword calling Danny Boy,” and all that sort of a thing.

Codes are codes. There is such a thing as a spoken code, or word-substitution text codes, but code books were basically a series of numbers, meant to be sent by something akin to Morse code—a series of dots and dashes sent by clicking a momentary switch.

***

We’ll skip over the clear, physical impossibility of leaping off the top of a cable-car and then half-running up a snow-covered roof. It’s a dramatic scene, full of suspense and dread, and yet there is just no way you could do it. Why would you, when you could just get some forged documents and ride up inside the cable-car, just like everybody else.

The whole premise of the film is bogus. A lie can be just as revealing as the truth, and this guy is supposed to allow himself to be tortured, according to Smith, into revealing false plans for the Second Front. I also find it difficult to believe that anyone, including a second-rate actor, would volunteer or allow themselves to be inveigled into undertaking such a mission. No one has that much faith, no one—as operations go, this one is awful hairy. Think about it: you are under torture. You have fake plans for D-Day. You most emphatically do not have the real plans for D-Day. How far would you push your luck? Right about the point where they're going to slice your pecker off, that's where.

It is true that a successful disinformation campaign was carried out prior to D-Day, much of it involving fake radio traffic, which emanated from the U.K.

Prior to the invasion of Sicily, (see The Man Who Never Was), there was an operation to convince the enemy, Germany and Italy, that the next invasion would be of the Balkans—rather than Sicily.

***

Der Schloss Adler. I bet there's a road, ladies and gentlemen.

Radio rooms. Once inside the castle, Smith and Schaffer take a look, Smith says they must disable the helicopter…Schaffer kills the guy in the Funkraum, (German for radio room), while Smith goes out and finds the helicopter pilot. There is literally a sign on the wall, this is for the audience to know its a radio room. He tells him there is a phone call, directing him to the Funkraum (radio room in German), just around the corner, where Schaffer stabs him. All very well, but the equipment in no way resembles a telephone switchboard. There would be an internal switchboard, connected within the castle. Outside lines would go through a switchboard down the mountain in the village.

I may tend to jump around in this analysis, if one has seen the film, you should be able to keep up, if you’ve never seen the film, then reading this post is essentially useless. There is a lot to cover, and I may not be able to hit every little thing.

Road work. The car accident. One wonders why three prisoners were taken to the castle via the cable car, whereas Smith and Schaffer were taken by car, which leads to the car accident scene. One wonders why their hands were not bound, when Schaffer moves to ‘tie up his shoelaces’, for example. One wonders what kind of road work, in the middle of winter, involves a piddly little cement mixer, or a few boards leaning up against the cliff, or various little racks that just stand there. There are two piles of gravel and some road barricades…after going out of control, the car goes up and over the first gravel pile and then crashes into the next one. Yet somehow, they manage to push the car back far enough, turn the wheel and then send it over the cliff. Now they walk back to town. All of this leads up to the question of where exactly does that road go…??? Presumably the castle. This just brings us back to question of why use the cable car at all. With good forged documents, the odds are, senior officers would have been admitted at the gate, even if they were unexpected. Truth is, they would have been brought in and then checked out very thoroughly. If the road does not go to the castle, just where in the hell were they going. A contradiction, if you will.

Himmler’s brother. When the six survivors arrive in town, stash their packs and enter zum Wilden Hirsh, (German for wild stag or wild hart), Smith informs another German officer that he is Himmler’s brother. This is about as stupid as it gets, ladies and gentlemen. A public figure in his own right, he might have been recognizable to anyone that read a newspaper, especially considering his older brother, but also as well as his employment at Berlin Radio.

Anti-aircraft gun in courtyard. This is more a matter of detail. With thirty or forty-foot curtain walls, the field of fire is severely restricted, and this weapon really should have been put up on the walls, or even outside the building, on a nearby hilltop, overlooking the valuable target it is meant to protect.

S.S. versus Gestapo. I became curious, as I often do. The Gestapo did indeed have a full-dress military style uniform. The average Gestapo in the civilian street really did wear the long, brown leather coats and various civilian attire. The psychology of a Gestapo officer wearing a uniform while surrounded by other military types is pretty obvious, it was meant to show rank, status, and perhaps to be taken seriously when surrounded by senior German officers. As far as that goes, there might not be too much love lost between S.S. and Gestapo, service rivalries being what they are in any army past and present.

***

The so-called proof. This is where the second radio room comes in...once we get to the scene in the great hall, where the assembled guests are comfortably seated around the table, with General Carnaby, soon to be revealed as Corporal Cartright-Jones, once we get past the fact that his hands are not bound, a clear violation of standard procedures, there is the question of so-called proof. This is when Major Smith suggests that the Germans have ‘one of the most powerful radio-telephones in Europe’ and that they contact Wilhelm Wilner in Italy to confirm his identity. One, the operator in the first Funkraum is dead, along with the helicopter pilot. Two, no one has discovered the bodies, and if this is indeed the telephone room, one wonders why no internal phone traffic, in what is purported to be the headquarters of the S.S. or Gestapo in southern Bavaria. How come no off-duty troopers use their privilege, pay the tolls and make a quick call home to the wife and family. But now, we see the need for a second radio room. That guy hasn’t been killed yet, right? And they obviously can't use the phone in the regular fashion. They're using the 'radio telephone', a real thing which actually did exist in WW II, referred to by British types as the r/t in many a book and film. Would it be possible to patch a phone line into the inputs of a radio set? Presumably, yes. The castle is described as the headquarters of the German Secret Service in Bavaria, yet seems to be populated with uniformed officers of the S.S. and Gestapo, and down below is a training camp for what are likely mountain troops...details, details.

#details

As far as the actual proof, it is of course ludicrous and no self-respecting senior officer would ever take it at face value. The very fact that two unknown officers come tramping down the stairs and into the room, unannounced, would have been something of a dead giveaway. Also, telling the enemy anything is bad practice. Yet the Germans bring in three spies to impress Carnaby, and Smith admits he’s been feeding bad info to Willi Wilner in Italy.

The poster.

There may be more, (maybe even plenty more), but you get the flavour of it. I have fantasized on occasion, of trying to find every Alistair Maclean book, perhaps in the thrift stores or buying them on Amazon. River of Death might be better enjoyed as a book than as a bad film, for example. I would love to read some of them again, that is for sure, ladies and gentlemen.

Films of this era have good colour, there are no computer generated images. Sets, vehicles, weapons are period, the locations are good, the acting is good, the budget was adequate. The pyrotechnics are good. It’s got a lot going for it, don’t get me wrong. Some guys like the Heidi character, for a couple of pretty obvious reasons. I like the Mary Ure character, but then I’ve always admired a girl that can shoot—that one’s more than just a pretty face.

Fighting on top of a cable-car is just plain nuts, yet the scene is reprised in Moonraker, with Bond and Jaws, and of course Doctor Goodhead—a real bad name, but Ian Fleming was famous for that sort of thing.

The film is fun, full of eye-candy for the war movie buff. In so many respects, it is a very good film and probably one of the best, for war movies fall down so very, very often...that, is a story for another day.

Other than that, you can learn much from almost any film, good or bad, if you have a jaundiced eye and a penchant for writing. One of the reasons I wanted to write in the first place, and this is not a thing to say lightly: because so much of film and television was just bad, ladies and gentlemen. That was true back then, and I reckon it’s still true today.

Notes. What was the German Secret Service. The answer is complicated. Heydrich and Himmler had their own ideas and their own empires to build, but the Abwehr existed until the assassination attempt of July 20, 1944, after which Hitler did away with the Abwehr, and Admiral Canaris and Colonel Oster ended up in concentration camps, ultimately murdered in the most cruel and obscene ways.

See: Sicherhietsdienst.



END


Louis Shalako has ebooks and audiobooks available from Google Play. Some of them are presently free, for example On the Nature of the Gods.

Louis has some artworks on ArtPal.

My First Pho. See this story on the #superdough blog.

 

Thank you for reading.